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The Spillover Effects Of Conflict On Economic Growth In Neighbouring Countries In Africa

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  • Olaf De Groot

Abstract

In this article, the influence of conflict on the economies of neighbouring countries is discussed. The results from previous papers show a strong negative effect for an entire area around a country suffering from conflict, but this paper reaches a different conclusion, by using more recent data and adjusting the methodology previously employed. Additionally, a new type of contiguity matrix is constructed and used in the actual analysis. The final analysis consists of a large number of regressions and concludes that conflict actually has two opposing effects. First, like conflict countries themselves, directly contiguous countries actually suffer from the negative effects of proximate conflict. Secondly, however, there is also a positive spillover of conflict, which affects non-contiguous countries and this effect is larger for countries that are closer to the conflict country. The results from the paper predominantly hold for the most violent kind of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf De Groot, 2010. "The Spillover Effects Of Conflict On Economic Growth In Neighbouring Countries In Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 149-164.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:149-164
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690903570575
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Vothknecht & Sudarno Sumarto, 2011. "Beyond the Overall Economic Downturn: Evidence on Sector-Specific Effects of Violent Conflict from Indonesia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1105, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Ali Fakih & May Ibrahim, 2016. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 64-86, February.
    3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    5. Olaf J. de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Bruck, 2015. "The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 199, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Juan Duque & Michael Jetter & Santiago Sosa, 2015. "UN interventions: The role of geography," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 67-95, March.
    8. Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009. "How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 948, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2014. "Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-11, December.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:484-495 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Randa Sab, 2014. "Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East; What Can We Learn from the Past?," IMF Working Papers 14/100, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Chuku Chuku & Isip Ima-Abasi & Abang Dominic, 2017. "Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria," Working Paper Series 2410, African Development Bank.

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