IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/112327.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conflict as a Cause of Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Crippa, Andrea
  • d'Agostino, Giorgio
  • Dunne, Paul
  • Pieroni, Luca

Abstract

Much of the literature on the determinants of migration considers push and pull and while conflict is considered a push factor it has received surprisingly little empirical scrutiny. When it has the focus is on the most visible result, refugee flows. While political oppression, economic adversities and environmental degradation are important determinants of migration, conflict and wars account for the bulk of low income country refugees and migrants. This paper considers the role that conflict plays in migration, beyond refugee flows, across a range of countries for which data is available. It estimates the impact of conflict on migration allowing for other important factors and different measures of conflict. A large effect of conflict on net migration is found for low income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Crippa, Andrea & d'Agostino, Giorgio & Dunne, Paul & Pieroni, Luca, 2022. "Conflict as a Cause of Migration," MPRA Paper 112327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112327/1/MPRA_paper_112327.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2011. "Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 199-211, February.
    2. Nicole B. Simpson, 2022. "Demographic and economic determinants of migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 373-373, July.
    3. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 335-366, April.
    4. John Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2019. "Costs of civil war and fragile states in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 1220-1237, August.
    5. Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2009. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 399-418, May.
    6. Bove, Vincenzo & Elia, Leandro, 2017. "Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 227-239.
    7. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    8. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2019. "Conflict determinants in Africa," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 21-31, October.
    9. Artuc, Erhan & Docquier, Frédéric & Özden, Çaglar & Parsons, Christopher, 2015. "A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: The Role of Non-OECD Destinations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 6-26.
    10. Olaf De Groot, 2010. "The Spillover Effects Of Conflict On Economic Growth In Neighbouring Countries In Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 149-164.
    11. Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong & Marva E. Corley, 2005. "Civil Wars and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa1," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(2), pages 270-311, June.
    12. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    13. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2004. "Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 138-151, January.
    14. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    15. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    16. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    17. Nathalie E. Williams, 2013. "How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(3), pages 353-369, November.
    18. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    19. Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra & Douglas Massey, 2011. "Individual Decisions to Migrate During Civil Conflict," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(2), pages 401-424, May.
    20. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2014. "Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Prakash Adhikari, 2013. "Conflict‐Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 82-89, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    2. Ana María Ibá-ez, 2014. "Growth in forced displacement: cross-country, sub-national and household evidence on potential determinants," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 350-387, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Achim Ahrens, 2015. "Civil conflicts in Africa: Climate, economic shocks, nighttime lights and spill-over effects," SEEC Discussion Papers 1501, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    4. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2018. "Your war, my problem: How conflict in a neighbour country hurts domestic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 484-495.
    5. Rasmane Ouedraogo & Montfort Mlachila & Windemanegda Sandrine Sourouema & Ali Compaoré, 2022. "The impact of conflict and political instability on banking crises in developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1937-1977, June.
    6. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2014. "Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Schaub, Max & Auer, Daniel, 2022. "Rebel Recruitment and Migration: Theory and Evidence From Southern Senegal," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue OnlineFir, pages 1-8.
    8. Brian J. Phillips, 2015. "Civil war, spillover and neighbors’ military spending," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 425-442, September.
    9. Casper Sakstrup, 2021. "What’s going on next door? Irregular leader change in neighboring countries, uncertainty, and civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 539-553, May.
    10. Martin Philipp Heger & Eric Neumayer, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 394-421, July.
    11. Fonner, Robert & Bohara, Alok K & Archambault, Stephen, 2018. "Migration Choices during Conflict in Nepal: Pull Forces and Landscape Interactions," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 46-61.
    12. Lessmann, Christian & Steinkraus, Arne, 2019. "The geography of natural resources, ethnic inequality and civil conflicts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 33-51.
    13. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    14. Trăistaru Marius, 2020. "Involving cross-border organized crime networks from ex-Soviet sources in support of terrorism and their influence on regional economic development," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 975-983, July.
    15. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Kuhnt, Jana, 2019. "Literature review: drivers of migration. Why do people leave their homes? Is there an easy answer? A structured overview of migratory determinants," IDOS Discussion Papers 9/2019, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    17. Matthew Osborne & Ben D’Exelle & Arjan Verschoor, 2018. "Truly reconciled? A dyadic analysis of post-conflict social reintegration in Northern Uganda," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(1), pages 107-121, January.
    18. Marie-Anne Valfort, 2007. "Containing ethnic conflicts through ethical voting? Evidence from Ethiopia," HiCN Working Papers 35, Households in Conflict Network.
    19. Marius Traistaru, 2021. "Impact of Actions of ex-Soviet Cross-Border Organized Crime Groups on Regional Economic Development," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 179-186, August.
    20. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 7-16.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; internal conflict; income; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.