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Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Dunne J. Paul

    (School of Economics and SALDRU, University of Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa)

  • Tian Nan

    (School of Economics and SALDRU, University of Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa)

Abstract

A number of studies have attempted to evaluate the costs of conflict, but few have evaluated the impact of conflict on country growth. An even more limited number of studies have attempted to evaluate the spillover effects of conflict, with those that have finding clear negative effects on primary neighbors and then positive secondary neighbor effects. There are, however, a number of issues with these studies and this paper updates and develops their analysis using a dynamic panel approach. It confirms the negative sign and magnitude of the previous findings for the host country and primary neighbors, but finds no evidence of any positive or negative effects of conflict on secondary neighbors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2014. "Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 539-549, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:11:n:10
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2014-0038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    2. J. Paul Dunne & Christine S. Makanza, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    3. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2018. "Your war, my problem: How conflict in a neighbour country hurts domestic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 484-495.
    4. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2017. "Working Paper 274 - Conflict and Fragile States in Africa," Working Paper Series 2391, African Development Bank.
    5. Mohammadou Nourou, 2020. "The effect of public spending on growth in oil-rich, conflict-prone countries: the case of Chad," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 556-566.
    6. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Kler, Parvinder, 2016. "Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 7-16.
    7. Andrea Crippa & Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2025. "Conflict as a cause of migration," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 596-618.
    8. Crippa, A. & d’Agostino, G. & Dunne, J.P. & Pieroni, L., 2025. "The price of war: A cross-country analysis on the conflict-growth nexus," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha & Moses Abit Ofeh & Boker Poumie, 2023. "Growth Effect of Inflation in Central African Countries: Does Security Situation Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(3), pages 3409-3430, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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