IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctn/dpaper/2019-04.html

Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • J. Paul Dunne

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

  • Christine S. Makanza

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

Abstract

While the military spending-growth nexus has been widely researched, most of this work tends to assume a linear relationship between military expenditure and growth. This ignores the possibility that the relationship may be non linear, and the impact of military burden on growth may vary by its size. A few studies have considered such non-linearities, but they have been mainly been country specific case studies. This paper applies models that allow for changing regimes to a balanced panel of Sub Saharan African countries. It finds there to be a differential of military spending on growth for countries with high and low burdens, with military spending positively contributing to growth in the low burden regime, while it deters growth in the high burden regime in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Paul Dunne & Christine S. Makanza, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2019-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxzb2VtYWNyb2Vjb3xneDozNTM1M2M3ZDU5NGQ2MjQ1
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J Paul Dunne & Fanny Coulomb, 2008. "Peace, War and International Security: Economic Theories," Working Papers 0803, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 80-97, March.
    3. Kollias, Christos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Guns, highways and economic growth in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 449-455.
    4. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2006. "Military expenditure, threats, and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 129-155.
    6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "A non-linear defence-growth nexus? evidence from the US economy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 71-82, February.
    7. J. Paul Dunne & Ron P. Smith, 2020. "Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 601-614, August.
    8. repec:uwe:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:5-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    10. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    11. Pavel Yakovlev, 2007. "Arms Trade, Military Spending, And Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 317-338.
    12. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou & Dimitrios Vougas, 2001. "Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 5-26.
    13. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2015. "Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 15-31, February.
    14. Nikolaos Mylonidis, 2008. "Revisiting The Nexus Between Military Spending And Growth In The European Union," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 265-272.
    15. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2013. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A survey," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 5-11, April.
    16. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    17. Paul E. Dunne & Fanny Coulomb, 2008. "Peace, war and international security," Post-Print hal-02388862, HAL.
    18. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    19. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    20. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, January.
    21. Smith, Ronald P., 1980. "Military expenditure and investment in OECD countries, 1954-1973," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 19-32, March.
    22. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2014. "Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 539-549, December.
    23. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 719-730, November.
    24. Looney, Robert & McNab, Robert M., 2008. "Can economic liberalization and improved governance alter the defense-growth trade-off?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 172-182, August.
    25. d'Agostino, G. & Dunne, J.P. & Pieroni, L., 2011. "Optimal military spending in the US: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1068-1077, May.
    26. Ram, Rati, 1995. "Defense expenditure and economic growth," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 251-274, Elsevier.
    27. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    28. Saadet Deger & Ron Smith, 1983. "Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(2), pages 335-353, June.
    29. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Innocent.U. Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Bartholomew.O.N. Okafor & Abubakar Yusuf & Lawrence.O. Ede & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh, 2021. "Military Outlay and Economic Growth: The Scenarios of Lake Chad Basin Countries of the Republic of Chad and Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 12-26.
    2. Dada James Temitope & Sharimakin Akinwumi & Al-Faryan Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Tabash Mosab I. & Adeiza Adams, 2024. "Asymmetric and Threshold Effect of Military Expenditure on Economic Growth: Insight from an Emerging Market," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 477-503.
    3. Jordan Becker & J Paul Dunne, 2023. "Military Spending Composition and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 259-271, April.
    4. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Siew Ling Yew, 2018. "The effect of military expenditure on growth: an empirical synthesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1357-1387, November.
    5. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2018. "No buck for the bang: revisiting the military-growth nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 639-653, November.
    6. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    7. Hou Na & Chen Bo, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in An Augmented Solow Model: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 395-409, August.
    8. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    9. Dimitrios Dimitriou & Eleftherios Goulas & Christos Kallandranis & Konstantinos Drakos, 2025. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from NATO and Non-NATO Alliances," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 324-348, April.
    10. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 719-730, November.
    11. E. Desli & A. Gkoulgkoutsika, 2021. "Military spending and economic growth: a panel data investigation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 781-806, August.
    12. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    13. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    14. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    15. Alessandra Cepparulo & Paolo Pasimeni, 2024. "Defence Spending in the European Union," European Economy - Discussion Papers 199, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. J. Paul Dunne & Ron P. Smith, 2020. "Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 601-614, August.
    17. Ourania Dimitraki & Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2025. "Interactional Impact of Defence Expenditure and Political Instability on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Revisited," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 533-554, May.
    18. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    19. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Goulas, Eleftherios & Kallandranis, Christos, 2025. "Spend on what? Insights on military spending efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2019-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kevin Kotze (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seuctza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.