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Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Czaika

    () (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)

  • Krisztina Kis-Katos

    (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique data–set from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5200 Acehnese villages and relates village level population change to conflict variables and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. The study finds that the negative impact of conflict incidence on village population stock is mainly driven by reductions in inflow for slightly affected (inflow) villages, and by an outflow push for severely affected (outflow) villages. After controlling for conflict variables, socioeconomic factors remain significant and robust determinants for explaining internal displacements. Villages that are more dependent on agricultural production experience larger population outflows, and smaller population inflows, which reflects a clear rural–urban migration pattern. The presence of small–scale manufacturing industries helps to retain village population. These results emphasize that forced migration cannot be considered as only a result of a unidimensional fear of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2007. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," HiCN Working Papers 32, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:32
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    2. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
    3. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    4. Faini, Riccardo, 1996. "Increasing returns, migrations and convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-136, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jäntti, Markus & Sarvimäki, Matti & Uusitalo, Roope, 2009. "Long-term effects of forced migration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33616, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2012. "Movers or Stayers? Understanding the Drivers of IDP Camp Decongestion during Post-Conflict Recovery in Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1197, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko & Andrew Tedesco, 2016. "Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-level Surveys: Current Practices and Methodological Challenges," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 29-58.
    4. Patricia Justino & Olga Shemyakina, 2012. "Remittances and labor supply in post-conflict Tajikistan," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Ivan Zilic, 2015. "Effects of Forced Displacement on Health," CDL Aging, Health, Labor working papers 2015-08, The Christian Doppler (CD) Laboratory Aging, Health, and the Labor Market, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Olsson, Ola & Siba, Eyerusalem, 2013. "Ethnic cleansing or resource struggle in Darfur? An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 299-312.
    8. Ana María Ibá-ez, 2014. "Growth in forced displacement: cross-country, sub-national and household evidence on potential determinants," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 350-387 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2010. "Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 38, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    12. Patricia Justino, 2009. "The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses," HiCN Working Papers 61, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Maclin, Beth J. & Kelly, Jocelyn T.D. & Perks, Rachel & Vinck, Patrick & Pham, Phuong, 2017. "Moving to the mines: Motivations of men and women for migration to artisanal and small-scale mining sites in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-122.
    14. Ola Olsson, 0. "After Janjaweed? Socioeconomic Impacts of the Conflict in Darfur," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 386-411.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2018. "The Migration of Fear: An Analysis of Migration Choices of Syrian Refugees," Working Papers 15-36, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    16. Ivlevs, Artjoms & Veliziotis, Michail, 2017. "Beyond Conflict: Long-Term Labour Market Integration of Internally Displaced Persons in Post-Socialist Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 11215, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 132, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. repec:spr:izamig:v:7:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-017-0102-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:jku:cdlwps:2015_08 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Displacement; civil conflict; Aceh;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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