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Growth, Import Dependence, and War

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Bonfatti
  • Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

Abstract

Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource‐rich regions when they are subject to blockade.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Bonfatti & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2018. "Growth, Import Dependence, and War," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(614), pages 2222-2257, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:614:p:2222-2257
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12511
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2018. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period and Great Recession Compared," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 418-439, September.
    2. Alejandro Ayuso‐Díaz & Antonio Tena‐Junguito, 2020. "Trade in the shadow of power: Japanese industrial exports in the interwar years," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 815-843, August.
    3. Ben G. Li & Penglong Zhang, 2026. "A Linear Model of Geopolitics," Papers 2603.11292, arXiv.org.
    4. Martin C. McGuire, 2020. "Trade and the predatory state: Ricardian exchange with armed competition for resources—a diagrammatic exposition," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(3), pages 459-494, March.
    5. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2017. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared," NBER Working Papers 23825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2019. "Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 356-382, June.
    7. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Arming in the global economy: The importance of trade with enemies and friends," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Ben Li & Penglong Zhang, 2016. "International Geopolitics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 909, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2017.
    9. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2022. "Globalization," Working Papers 20220075, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jan 2022.
    10. Jeremy Kettering & Shane Sanders, 2024. "Bargaining in the shadow of conflict: resource division and War’s Inefficiency Puzzle in the commons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 199(1), pages 83-101, April.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chițu, 2021. "Mars or Mercury redux: The geopolitics of bilateral trade agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 21-44, January.
    12. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Zylkin, Thomas, 2022. "Prudence versus predation and the gains from trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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