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The Paradox of Global Thrift

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  • Fornaro, Luca
  • Romei, Federica

Abstract

This paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest rates are low and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments implement prudential financial and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy. We show that these policies, while effective from the perspective of individual countries, might backfire if applied on a global scale. In fact, prudential policies generate a rise in the global supply of savings and a drop in global aggregate demand. Weaker global aggregate demand depresses output in countries at the zero lower bound. Due to this effect, non-cooperative financial and fiscal policies might lead to a fall in global output and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Fornaro, Luca & Romei, Federica, 2018. "The Paradox of Global Thrift," CEPR Discussion Papers 12894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12894
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acharya, Sushant & Bengui, Julien, 2018. "Liquidity traps, capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 276-298.
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    6. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2016. "The paradox of global thrift," Economics Working Papers 1609, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2019.
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mavroeidi, Eleonora & Thwaites, Gregory & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Step away from the zero lower bound: Small open economies in a world of secular stagnation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-102.
    3. Acharya, Sushant & Bengui, Julien, 2018. "Liquidity traps, capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 276-298.
    4. de Ferra, Sergio & Romei, Federica, 2018. "Sovereign Default in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 12976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Martin Wolf, 2019. "Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Downward Wage Rigidity," Vienna Economics Papers 1905, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate demand externalities; Capital Flows; current account policies; fiscal policies; international cooperation; liquidity traps; macroprudential policies; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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