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Currency wars or efficient spillovers?

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  • Anton Korinek

Abstract

In an interconnected world, national economic policies regularly lead to large international spillover effects, which frequently trigger calls for international policy cooperation. However, the premise of successful cooperation is that there is a Pareto inefficiency, i.e. if there is scope to make some nations better off without hurting others. This paper presents a first welfare theorem for open economies that defines an efficient benchmark and spells out the conditions that need to be violated to generate inefficiency and scope for cooperation. These are: (i) policymakers act competitively in the international market, (ii) policymakers have sufficient external policy instruments and (iii) international markets are free of imperfections. Our theorem holds even if each economy suffers from a wide range of domestic market imperfections and targeting problems. We provide examples of current account intervention, monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy/capital controls, and exchange rate management and show that the resulting spillovers are Pareto efficient, but only if the three conditions are satisfied. Furthermore, we develop general guidelines for how policy cooperation can improve welfare when the conditions are violated.

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  • Anton Korinek, 2017. "Currency wars or efficient spillovers?," BIS Working Papers 615, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:615
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2019. "The Paradox of Global Thrift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3745-3779, November.
    2. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux, 2019. "Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 358, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jackson, Timothy & Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Macroprudential policy coordination in a currency union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Stephanie Guichard, 2017. "10 Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt About International Capital Flows?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-30, October.
    5. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2018. "The Paradox of Global Thrift (Plus Appendix)," Working Papers 1039, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Carlos Cantú, 2017. "Effects of capital controls on foreign exchange liquidity," BIS Working Papers 659, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    8. Cantú, Carlos, 2019. "Effects of capital controls on foreign exchange liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 201-222.
    9. Michael Abendschein & Harry Gölz, 2021. "International cooperation on financial market regulation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 787-824, October.
    10. Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2020. "Capital controls spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Samuel Enajero, 2021. "Cryptocurrency, Money Demand and the Mundell-Fleming Model of International Capital Mobility," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 57-69, March.
    12. Eduardo Dávila & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Corrective Regulation with Imperfect Instruments," NBER Working Papers 29160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
    14. Clayton, Christopher & Schaab, Andreas, 2023. "Regulation with Externalities and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," TSE Working Papers 23-1445, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    Keywords

    currency wars; international spillovers; policy cooperation; first welfare theorem;
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