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Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows

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  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee
  • Michael B Devereux
  • Giovanni Lombardo

Abstract

This paper explores the nature of macroeconomic spillovers from advanced economies to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the consequences for independent use of monetary policy in EMEs. We first empirically document the effects of US monetary policy shocks on a sample group of EMEs. A contractionary monetary shock leads a retrenchment in EME capital flows, a fall in EME GDP, and an exchange rate depreciation. We construct a theoretical model which can help to account for these findings. In the model, macroeconomic spillovers are exacerbated by financial frictions. We assess the extent to which domestic monetary policy can mitigate the negative spillovers from foreign shocks. Absent financial frictions, international spillovers are minor, and an inflation targeting rule represents an effective policy for the EME. With frictions in financial intermediation, however, spillovers are substantially magnified, and an inflation targeting rule has little advantage over an exchange rate peg. However, an optimal monetary policy markedly improves on the performance of naive inflation targeting or an exchange rate peg. Furthermore, optimal policies don't need to be coordinated across countries. Under the specific set of assumptions maintained in our model, a non-cooperative, self-oriented optimal policy gives results very similar to those of a global cooperative optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Michael B Devereux & Giovanni Lombardo, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," BIS Working Papers 540, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:540
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Enisse Kharroubi & Leonardo Gambacorta & Giovanni Lombardo & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2017. "The international dimensions of macroprudential policies," BIS Working Papers 643, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:93:y:2018:i:c:p:346-363 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    4. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Stefan Avdjiev & Elod Takats, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending," BIS Working Papers 549, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:03:n:s179399331750017x is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2018. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Working Papers 2018-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    9. repec:eee:inecon:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2016. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates in a Great Recession," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1644, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:115-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Globalization Institute Working Papers 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. repec:bis:bisbps:97 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different instruments and regulatory regimes," Working Papers 15/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    16. Banerjee, Ryan & Devereux, Michael B. & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 275-297.
    17. McNelis, Paul D., 2016. "Optimal policy rules at home, crisis and quantitative easing abroad," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    19. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:142-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Pengfei Jia, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy Coordination in a Currency Union'," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 235, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    21. Yasin Mimir & Enes Sunel, 2015. "External shocks, banks and optimal monetary policy in an open economy," BIS Working Papers 528, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2017. "International Coordination of Macroprudential Policies with Capital Flows and Financial Asymmetries," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-05, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Nov 2018.
    23. Edward Nelson, 2017. "The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Floating Exchange Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-112, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International spillovers; Local Projections; Capital flows; Financial intermediaries; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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