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Sudden Floods, Macroprudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • K. Alper
  • L. Pereira da Silva

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr166.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 166.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:166
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  1. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
  2. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper, 2012. "Monetary shocks and central bank liquidity with credit market imperfections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 563-591, July.
  4. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  5. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Asli Leblebicioglu, 2006. "Financial Integration, Credit Market Imperfections and Consumption Smoothing," 2006 Meeting Papers 651, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Agénor, P.-R. & Alper, K. & Pereira da Silva, L., 2009. "Capital requirements and business cycles with credit market imperfections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5151, The World Bank.
  9. Jaime C. Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 8, pages 279-344 Central Bank of Chile.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2013. "Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults," Working Papers 13-19, Bank of Canada.
  11. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/20, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Senay, Ozge, 2008. "Disinflation And Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 234-256, April.
  13. Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Intermediate goods trade and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583, June.
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