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Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • K. Alper
  • L. Pereira da Silva

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps267.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 267.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:267
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2009. "Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 124, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Koray Alper, 2009. "Monetary Shocks and Central Bank Liquidity with Credit Market Imperfections," Working Papers 0906, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2007. "Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2011.
  5. Asli Leblebicioglu, 2006. "Financial Integration, Credit Market Imperfections and Consumption Smoothing," 2006 Meeting Papers 651, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
  7. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  8. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Senay, Ozge, 2008. "Disinflation And Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 234-256, April.
  11. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
  12. Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Intermediate goods trade and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583, June.
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