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Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • K. Alper
  • L. Pereira da Silva

Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy," Working Papers Series 267, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. José Renato Haas Ornelas & José Santiago Fajardo Barbachan & Aquiles Rocha de Farias, 2012. "Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options," Working Papers Series 269, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Zoe Venter, 2020. "The Interaction Between Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers REM 2020/0123, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2012. "A Note on Particle Filters Applied to DSGE Models," Working Papers Series 281, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Tovar, Camilo & Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes & Vera, Mercedes, 2012. "El crecimiento del crédito y la efectividad de los requerimientos de encaje y otros instrumentos macroprudenciales en América Latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 24, pages 45-64.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Credit Growth and the Effectiveness of Reserve Requirements and Other Macroprudential Instruments in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/142, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "Information (in) Chains: information transmission through production chains," Working Papers Series 286, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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