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Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • K. Alper
  • L. Pereira da Silva

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps267.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 267.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:267
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
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  3. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
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  5. Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2009. "Financial integration, credit market imperfections and consumption smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 377-393, February.
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  8. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  9. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  10. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
  11. Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Intermediate goods trade and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583, June.
  12. Senay, Ozge, 2008. "Disinflation And Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 234-256, April.
  13. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
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