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Quantitative Easing and Related Capital Flows into Brazil: measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation

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  • João Barata R. B. Barroso
  • Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
  • Adriana Soares Sales

Abstract

This paper investigates whether quantitative easing policies produces spillover effects from advanced economies into emerging markets affecting prices and asset markets, and, if so, how much of these effects is attributed to “excessive” capital inflows. We focus on the Brazilian economy and on quantitative easing (QE) policies adopted by the Federal Reserve. Our evaluation methodology is an extension of Pesaran and Smith (2012) and estimates ex-ante and ex-post policy effects over a grid of counterfactuals. We also provide a decomposition of the transmission channels of the policy effects, and test for their statistical significance. The decomposition method is novel and stems from a vector autoregressive model of the endogenous variables where the different channels are represented. Our results are consistent with the view that QE policies had a positive effect on growth but also had other significant spillover effects on the Brazilian economy. These effects were mostly transmitted through “excessive” capital inflows that led to exchange rate appreciation, stock market price increases and a credit boom. The effect on inflation was less robust, mitigated by currency appreciation and dependent on whether global activity reacts more strongly to quantitative easing.

Suggested Citation

  • João Barata R. B. Barroso & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales, 2013. "Quantitative Easing and Related Capital Flows into Brazil: measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Working Papers Series 313, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets - An overview," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 1-24 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Effect of Quantitative Easing on the Indian Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Perspective," CEGAP Working Papers 2015_03, Durham University Business School.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Enisse Kharroubi & Leonardo Gambacorta & Giovanni Lombardo & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2017. "The international dimensions of macroprudential policies," BIS Working Papers 643, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Cunha, Ronan & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2017. "The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?," Textos para discussão 459, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    5. Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Wieladek, Tomasz & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jaroslava Durčáková & Ondřej Šíma, 2013. "BRICS: Exchange Rate policy in Context of Internal and External Equilibrium," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(4), pages 7-29.
    7. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86, June.
    8. Skrypnik, D., 2014. "The Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing in the United States for Russian Economy. Macroeconometric Analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 74-101.
    9. Diego Winkelried, 2017. "Inferring Inflation Expectations from Fixed-Event Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Marek Lubiński, 2015. "Efekty ponadgraniczne niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 5-28.
    11. João Barata R B Barroso & Emanuel W Kohlscheen & Eduardo J A Lima, 2014. "What have central banks in EMEs learned about the international transmission of monetary policy in recent years?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 95-109 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Pierre LESUISSE, 2017. "External Monetary Shocks to Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 201705, CERDI.
    13. Pierre Lesuisse, 2017. "External Monetary Shocks to Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers halshs-01467330, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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