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What Do Capital Inflows Do? Dissecting the Transmission Mechanism for Thailand, 1980-96


  • W. Jos Jansen

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)


This paper examines the effects of private financial (non-FDI) capital inflows in Thailand in the pre-crisis period (1980:I–96:IV). Private capital inflows are found to be associated with higher asset prices, lower lending rates, surges in bank lending and domestic spending driven by higher investment, higher output, modest inflation, and modest real exchange rate appreciation. Inflows are also associated with a greater vulnerability to a liquidity crisis, but not with greater external solvency risk. Current account deficits are temporary, thus sustainable, as exports catch up with higher imports within two years. Consequently, the Thai crisis appears to be more of a liquidity crisis than an external solvency crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "What Do Capital Inflows Do? Dissecting the Transmission Mechanism for Thailand, 1980-96," Macroeconomics 0309012, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0309012 Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP, A4 paper; pages: 47 ; figures: included. Final version, forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sean Joss Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The effects of capital inflows on South Africa's economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 923-938, June.
    2. Dizaji, S.F. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2012. "Early phase success and long run failure of economic sanctions. With an application to Iran," ISS Working Papers - General Series 544, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. W. Jos Jansen, 2008. "Inside The Impossible Triangle: Monetary Policy Autonomy In A Credible Target Zone," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 216-228, April.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Hamizun Bin Ismail, 2012. "The present value model and Thailand's current account balance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 337-355, December.
    5. Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Financial Openness and Macroeconomic Instability in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 501-532, July.
    6. Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.), Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 8, pages 255-290 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    8. Deniz O Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2015. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 15/193, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item


    Asian crisis; capital flows; lending boom; investment boom; transmission mechanism;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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