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Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets

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  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

Unconventional monetary policy such as Quantitative Easing (QE) is often considered to have considerable spillover effects on emerging market economies (EME). Aims at quantifying these effects so far mostly use high-frequency data around announcement dates, panels or VAR models. This paper proposes an alternative way to estimate the effects of QE on emerging markets that allows us to include macroeconomic, i.e. low-frequency, data together with announcement dates. A Qual VAR is estimated that integrates binary information of QE announcements with an otherwise standard VAR, including US and emerging market variables. A key advantage is that the model accounts for the endogeneity and forecastability of QE announcements. The model uncovers the Fed's latent, unobservable propensity for QE and generates impulse responses for EME variables to QE shocks. The results suggest that QE has significant effects on EME's financial conditions and plays a sizable role in explaining capital inflows, equity prices and exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:136-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Malagon, Jonathan, 2018. "Financial spillovers of international monetary policy: Six hypotheses on the Latin American case, 2010-2016," CEPR Discussion Papers 12678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ag�nor, Pierre-Richard & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Kharroubi, Enisse & Lombardo, Giovanni & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2017. "The International Dimensions of Macroprudential Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:173-188 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:548-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:onb:oenbmp:y:2018:i:q2/18:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nakabayashi, Masaki, 2017. "Contained crisis and socialized risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 231-241.
    7. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:109-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Bond yield spillovers from major advanced economies to emerging Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 109-126, February.
    9. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:23-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    11. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    12. Miguel Sarmiento, 2019. "The Impact of Exogenous Liquidity Shocks on Banks Funding Costs: Microevidence from the Unsecured Interbank Market," IHEID Working Papers 01-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:31-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    16. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    17. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk Spillover in the US Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-47, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "International Monetary Policy Spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR," Working Papers 201806, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Yves, Togba Boboy & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Swing in the Fed’s balance sheet policy and spillover effects on emerging Asian countries," MPRA Paper 87141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    21. repec:eco:journ2:2018-03-17 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Qual VAR; Unconventional monetary policy; Emerging markets; Spillovers; LSAP;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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