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Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century

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Abstract

This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. Latent variable VAR analysis of post-war data finds that inflation has had a particularly strong impact on market conditions, with disinflation shocks moving the market toward a boom and positive inflation shocks moving the market toward a bust. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.

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  • Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century," Working Papers 2007-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2007-020
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    3. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    4. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2019. "A Monetary Model of Bilateral Over-the-Counter Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 205-227, July.
    5. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    6. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    8. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2010. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between the interest rates and the stock prices in Romania," MPRA Paper 36716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2011.
    9. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Badamvaanchig, Mungunzul & Islam, Moinul & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2021. "Pass-through of commodity price to Mongolian stock price: Symmetric or asymmetric?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Aldo Musacchio, 2010. "Law and Finance c. 1900," NBER Working Papers 16216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Shaturaev, Jakhongir, 2023. "Impact of Cryptocurrency Market on the Performance of Stock Market- An Empirical Study," MPRA Paper 118244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 May 2023.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Monash Economics Working Papers 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    16. Kuk Mo Jung & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2020. "A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices," Working Papers 2001, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    21. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Stock exchanges;

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