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Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Michael J. Dueker
  • David C. Wheelock

Abstract

This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We estimate a latent variable VAR to examine how macroeconomic and policy shocks affect the condition of the stock market. Further, we examine the contribution of various shocks to market conditions during particular episodes and find evidence that inflation and interest rate shocks had particularly strong impacts on market conditions in the postwar era. Disinflation shocks promoted market booms and inflation shocks contributed to busts. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Ricardo Lagos, 2011. "Asset Prices, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy in an Exchange Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 521-552, October.
    5. Anthony Olugbenga ADARAMOLA & Peter Akinyemi KAYODE, 2022. "Is Monetary Policy - Stock Price Behaviour Effect Sector-Sensitive? Evidence From Nigeria," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(3), pages 171-193.
    6. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Vladimir Asriyan & Luca Fornaro & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2021. "Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World [Money and Capital in a Persistent Liquidity Trap]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1418-1456.
    8. Haifa Hammami & Younes Boujelbene, 2017. "Stock market crashes shocks and real economy in Tunisia," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 31-48.
    9. Tanya ARAUJO & Sofia TERLICA & Samuel ELEUTERIO & Francisco LOUCA, 2014. "Does evidence challenge the DSGE model," International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, Center for International Scientific Research of VSO and VSPP, vol. 2(2), pages 15-24, December.
    10. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    11. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    12. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina, 2023. "Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Manamba EPAPHRA & Evidence SALEMA, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices in Tanzania," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 12-41, March.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    16. ali, ramsha, 2016. "Impact of inflation on the monetary policy: case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 92362, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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