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The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chih-Chuan Yeh

    () (Department of Finance, The Overseas Chinese Institute of Technology, Taiwan)

  • Ching-Fang Chi

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper carries out the methodology suggested by Den Haan (2000) to investigate the co-movement of inflation and real stock returns using quarterly data from OECD countries. We confirm the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships between inflation and real stock returns, regardless of whether the underlying time series data are purely I(0), purely I(1), or mutually co-integrated. Moreover, we use the confidence interval approach introduced by Stock (1991) to further point out the ambiguity in unit root tests. However, our results support the existence of an inverse co-movement and long-run relationship between these two variables in 12 OECD countries. That is, an increase in inflation depresses real stock prices. This evidence is consistent with both the inflation illusion hypothesis and with the classical view that stock returns should be undervalued to reflect the imbalance in the tax treatment of inventory.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Chuan Yeh & Ching-Fang Chi, 2009. "The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 167-186, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:5:y:2009:i:2:p:167-186
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Iorember, Paul & Sokpo, Joseph & Usar, Terzungwe, 2017. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns Volatility: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Exchange 1995Q1-2016Q4: An E-GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 85656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mathius Tandiontong, 2017. "The Influence of Financial Distress Using Altman Z-Score, The Beta of Stocks and Inflation To The Stock Return," GATR Journals jfbr126, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; stock returns; co-movement; ARDL-ECM;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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