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Inflation and Stock Market Returns Volatility: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Exchange 1995Q1-2016Q4: An E-GARCH Approach

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  • Iorember, Paul
  • Sokpo, Joseph
  • Usar, Terzungwe

Abstract

The paper investigated the effect of inflation on stock market returns on the Nigerian stock exchange market, employing a volatility modeling approach. Using monthly data on stock market returns and consumer price index inflation rate, the paper employed GARCH and E-GARCH volatility modeling techniques for analysis. The study found that CPI inflation is not an important variable in explaining stock market return volatility in Nigeria. The E-GARCH model did not find existence of asymmetry in the stock return series; that is good news and bad news have identical impact on stock returns in Nigeria. The GARCH model show high persistence in the stock returns series, though a shock to stock returns has only a temporary impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Iorember, Paul & Sokpo, Joseph & Usar, Terzungwe, 2017. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns Volatility: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Exchange 1995Q1-2016Q4: An E-GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 85656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    2. Kashif Islam & Ahmad Raza Bilal & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi, 2022. "Symmetric and asymmetric nexus between economic freedom and stock market development in Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2391-2421, November.
    3. Mtero, Charles Tapedza & Runganga, Raynold, 2021. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns in Zimbabwe: Comparison Among the GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH Models," MPRA Paper 112408, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Mar 2022.
    4. Wellington Garikai Bonga & Ledwin Chimwai & Puruweti Siyakiya & Ireen Choga, 2022. "Stock Market Volatility in Zimbabwe Stock Exchange during Pandemic Period," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 10(2), pages 68-82.
    5. Bonga, Wellington Garikai, 2019. "Stock Market Volatility Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Zimbabwe Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 94201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Terhemba Iorember, Paul & Usar, Terzungwe & Hannafi Ibrahim, Kabiru, 2018. "Analyzing inflation in Nigeria: a fractionally integrated ARFIMA-GARCH modelling Approach," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(1), January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; stock market returns; Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (E-GARCH);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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