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Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kwame Mireku

    (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology)

  • Kwaku Sarkodie

    (Assemblies of God Senior High School)

  • Kwasi Poku

    (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock prices in Ghana. Analysis was done using monthly data from 1991.4 to 2010.8. This study employed cointegration test and vector error correction models (VECM) to examine both long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between the stock market index and the macroeconomic variables. Generalized impulse function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) were used to detect the effect of shocks in the macroeconomic factors on complete time path of stock prices and vice versa. The time series properties of the data were, first, analyzed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips- Perron tests. The empirical results derived indicate that all the variables were stationary after their first differencing. The paper established that there is cointegration between macroeconomic variables and Stock prices in Ghana indicating long run relationship. The above long term relation indicates that Interest Rate (TB) and Exchange Rate (XR) have a negative effect on Stock Prices whiles Inflation (CPI) showed a positive effect on Stock Prices (DSI). Results of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) indicate that the macroeconomic variables identified a low significant influence on share price movements in Ghana.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwame Mireku & Kwaku Sarkodie & Kwasi Poku, 2013. "Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 32-43, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:3:y:2013:i:2:p:32-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Iorember, Paul & Sokpo, Joseph & Usar, Terzungwe, 2017. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns Volatility: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Exchange 1995Q1-2016Q4: An E-GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 85656, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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