IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v55y2018i2d10.1007_s00181-017-1296-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of oil prices on firm stock return: industry-wise analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rida Waheed

    (Shandong University)

  • Chen Wei

    (Shandong University)

  • Suleman Sarwar

    (Shandong University)

  • Yulan Lv

    (Shandong University)

Abstract

The study investigates the impact of oil prices on firm-level stock returns in case of Pakistan over the period 1998–2014, as this relationship is neglected by the previous literature. By using the panel data estimation, the results of full sample indicate significant positive effect of oil price changes on firm stock returns in the same period, whereas the lagged oil price changes have significant negative effect on firms’ stock return. Moreover, the industry-level analysis also confirms the similar findings; results indicate significant positive impact of oil price on firms’ stock return in full sample, textile, chemical and miscellaneous industry, while the lagged oil price changes negatively affect the stock returns of full sample and all the industries except tobacco, jute and vanaspati industries. The study confirms that rise in oil price transfers a positive signal in the stock market that boosts the firm-level stock returns in Pakistan. In contrast to the negative shocks, the stock returns are significantly affected by the positive oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rida Waheed & Chen Wei & Suleman Sarwar & Yulan Lv, 2018. "Impact of oil prices on firm stock return: industry-wise analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 765-780, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1296-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1296-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1296-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-017-1296-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Oil price uncertainty and sectoral stock returns in China: A time-varying approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-321.
    3. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    5. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    6. Bailey, Warren & Peter Chung, Y., 1996. "Risk and return in the Philippine equity market: A multifactor exploration," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 197-218, July.
    7. Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Njeh, Hassen, 2012. "Assessing the impacts of oil price fluctuations on stock returns in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2686-2695.
    8. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
    9. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P. & Khalifa, Ahmed A.A., 2015. "Oil price risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns: The case of net exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-140.
    10. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    11. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    12. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Xuan, 2015. "Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 434(C), pages 13-24.
    13. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
    14. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    15. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    16. Johnson, Simon & Boone, Peter & Breach, Alasdair & Friedman, Eric, 2000. "Corporate governance in the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 141-186.
    17. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    18. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
    19. Knut Anton Mork, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 15-38.
    20. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    21. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    22. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    23. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    24. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 97-116.
    25. Merton H. Miller, 2000. "The History Of Finance: An Eyewitness Account," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(2), pages 8-14, June.
    26. Kwame Mireku & Kwaku Sarkodie & Kwasi Poku, 2013. "Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 32-43, April.
    27. Aggarwal, Raj & Akhigbe, Aigbe & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2012. "Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1370-1379.
    28. Javier F. Mory, 1993. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 151-162.
    29. Scholtens, Bert & Yurtsever, Cenk, 2012. "Oil price shocks and European industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1187-1195.
    30. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    31. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    32. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Has oil price predicted stock returns for over a century?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-23.
    33. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    34. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    35. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    36. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2014. "Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-151.
    37. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    38. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, April.
    39. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    40. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    41. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    42. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    43. Rehana Siddiqui, 2004. "Energy and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 175-200.
    44. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    45. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    46. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Khraief, Naceur, 2014. "Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    47. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aziz, Ghazala & Sarwar, Suleman & Nawaz, Kishwar & Waheed, Rida & Khan, Mohd Saeed, 2023. "Influence of tech-industry, natural resources, renewable energy and urbanization towards environment footprints: A fresh evidence of Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Alao, Rasheed O. & Payaslioglu, Cem, 2021. "Oil price uncertainty and industrial production in oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Xiao, Jihong & Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Yu Wei & Lan Bai & Kun Yang & Guiwu Wei, 2021. "Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 17-39, January.
    5. Arvian Triantoro & Muhammad Zaheer Akhtar & Shiraz Khan & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Abdul Wahab Pathath & Muhamad Amar Mahmad & Kamil Sertoglu, 2023. "Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 34-50, March.
    6. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Managing exposure to volatile oil prices: Evidence from U.S. sectoral and industry-level data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Cui xiaozhong, & Yen-Ku, Kuo & Maneengam, Apichit & Cong, Phan The & Quynh, Nguyen Ngoc & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa & Wisetsri, Worakamol, 2022. "Covid-19 and oil and gold price volatilities: Evidence from China market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Belhassine, Olfa, 2020. "Volatility spillovers and hedging effectiveness between the oil market and Eurozone sectors: A tale of two crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Muhammad Usman & Danish Ahmed Siddiqui, 2019. "The Effect of Oil Price on Stock Market Returns with Moderating Effect of Foreign Direct Investment & Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Market," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 45-61, June.
    10. Fu, Zheng & Chen, Zhiguo & Sharif, Arshian & Razi, Ummara, 2022. "The role of financial stress, oil, gold and natural gas prices on clean energy stocks: Global evidence from extreme quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Teng, Jian-Zhou & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Jadoon, Arshad Ullah & Khan, Muhammad Fayaz, 2021. "The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Etimad Rahimli, 2020. "Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Oil Prices and Industry Index Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 324-331.
    13. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock exchanges in Caspian Basin countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    14. Xu, Chao & Zhao, Xiaojun & Wang, Yanwen, 2022. "Causal decomposition on multiple time scales: Evidence from stock price-volume time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Shahid Ali & Junrui Zhang & Mazhar Abbas & Muhammad Umar Draz & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2019. "Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Estimations and Portfolio Optimization: Evidence From G7 Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    3. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    4. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.
    5. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. David C. Broadstock, Ying Fan, Qiang Ji, and Dayong Zhang, 2016. "Shocks and Stocks: A Bottom-up Assessment of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and the Returns of Chinese Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    7. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    8. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    9. Balakumar, Suganya & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Do oil price shocks have any implications for stock return momentum?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 637-663.
    10. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    12. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. David C Broadstock & Rui Wang & Dayong Zhang, 2014. "The direct and indirect effects of oil shocks on energy related stocks," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 146, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between oil prices and sectoral stock prices: Nonlinear evidence from Kuwait stock exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1286061-128, January.
    16. Cakan, Esin & Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2021. "Oil Prices and Firm Returns in an Emerging Market," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 166-187, May.
    17. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    18. Broadstock, David C. & Wang, Rui & Zhang, Dayong, 2014. "Direct and indirect oil shocks and their impacts upon energy related stocks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 451-467.
    19. Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price shocks and the equity market: Evidence for the S&P 500 sectoral indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 137-155.
    20. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Grigoris Giannarakis & Eleni Zafeiriou & Ioannis Billias, 2016. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price Moments on Socially Responsible Firms in Eurozone," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 356-363.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Firm-level return; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1296-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.