Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu[Money supply and US stock market causality]

Monograph on the Causal Relation of Money Supply and American Stock Market deals with the effect of the change of nominal money supply on the American stock index in the studied period 1967–2014. The „Industrial“ stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is considered a barometer of the development of American economy and stock market was chosen as a representative of the American stock market since it includes 30 largest American corporations with the highest liquidity (blue chips). The nominal money supply is represented by the wider monetary aggregate M2, which the mentioned authors use in their analyses too, analyzing additionally also the relation of MZM monetary aggregate preferred by some authors in performing stock analyses. The empirical part of the study monitors the effect of nominal money supply in the period from January 1967 to December 2014. Within this empirical part, the studied period is divided into six time segments to capture current events on the market because the sufficiently long and current horizon covers interesting situations on the market. In a partial analysis, attention is paid also to the existence of price bubbles on the stock markets. The aim of the empirical analyses is to decide whether the nominal money supply on the given market represents a significant factor causing the occurrence of price bubbles. Using both Czech and foreign sources, the empirical analyses apply standard methodological procedures the results of which are in the final part of the study confronted with relevant expert resources and embedded in a wider framework. Thus, the results of the study allow to discuss whether the nominal money supply is actually a significant factor for equity investors, which determines stock prices, and whether this factor is pivotal for explaining the development of stock markets either during a long period of time or in the period of equity bubbles. The study also suggests other possible directions for the solution of the concerned issue the results of which can be compared with the results of this work.