IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/5020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Expansion and Stock Returns in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Husain, Fazal
  • Mahmood, Tariq

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between money supply and stock prices in Pakistan. Two measures of money stocks (M1 and M2) and six stock price indices (general and five sectors) were taken for the period June 1991 to June 1999. The co-integration analysis indicates a long run relationship between stock prices and money supply for both M1 and M2. The Error Correction Model, on the other hand, does not endorse the long run relationship between stock prices and M1. Regarding long run relationship between stock prices and M2, the model suggests a unidirectional causality running from M2 to stock prices. The model also shows the evidence of short run effects of M2 on stock prices. The analysis suggests that the stock market is not efficient with respect to money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1999. "Monetary Expansion and Stock Returns in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 5020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5020/1/MPRA_paper_5020.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kraft, John & Kraft, Arthur, 1977. "Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 417-425, May.
    2. Ho, Yan-ki, 1983. "Money supply and equity prices : An empirical note on Far Eastern countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 161-165.
    3. Rozeff, Michael S., 1974. "Money and stock prices : Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 245-302, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 108-123, February.
    2. Sirucek, Martin, 2012. "The impact of money supply on stock prices and stock bubbles," MPRA Paper 40919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sirucek, Martin, 2012. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market: US review," MPRA Paper 39094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "货币增速剪刀差与股票市场收益率的时变格兰杰因果关系研究 [A Study on the Time-varying Granger Causality Relation of Scissors Gap of Money Supply and Stock Market Return]," MPRA Paper 73369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mehr-un-Nisa & Mohammad Nishat, 2011. "The Determinants of Stock Prices in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(4), pages 276-291, December.
    6. Faisal Khan & Saif-Ur-Rehman Khan & Hashim Khan, 2016. "Pricing of Risk, Various Volatility Dynamics and Macroeconomic Exposure of Firm Returns: New Evidence on Age Effect," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 551-561.
    7. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sirucek, Martin, 2011. "Impact of monetary policy on US stock market," MPRA Paper 40943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chung, Tin-fah & Ariff, M., 2016. "A test of the linkage among money supply, liquidity and share prices in Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 48-61.
    3. Martin Širůček, 2012. "Effect of money supply on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 399-408.
    4. Sirucek, Martin, 2012. "The impact of money supply on stock prices and stock bubbles," MPRA Paper 40919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ariff, Mohamed & Chung, Tin-fah & M., Shamsher, 2012. "Money supply, interest rate, liquidity and share prices: A test of their linkage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 202-220.
    6. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.
    7. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    8. Sagarika Mishra & Harminder Singh, 2012. "Do macro-economic variables explain stock-market returns? Evidence using a semi-parametric approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(2), pages 115-127, April.
    9. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-481, March.
    10. Zhou, Xiaoguang & Cui, Yadi & Wu, Shihwei & Wang, Weiqing, 2019. "The influence of cultural distance on the volatility of the international stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 289-300.
    11. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    12. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Halil Altintas & Kassouri Yacouba, 2018. "Asymmetric Responses of Stock Prices to Money Supply and Oil Prices Shocks in Turkey: New Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 45-53.
    14. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    15. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    16. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani, 2011. "Monetary Shocks or Real Shocks, Which matters the most for Share Prices," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 2(6), pages 246-251.
    17. Anthony Saunders & Richard B. Tress, 1981. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns:Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 58-66, March.
    18. Qinkai Chen, 2021. "Stock Movement Prediction with Financial News using Contextualized Embedding from BERT," Papers 2107.08721, arXiv.org.
    19. Mearaj-ud-Din DAR & Khursheed Ahmad BUTT, 2023. "Are stock markets of emerging economies informationally efficient? Causal analysis of stock prices and macroeconomic variables of EM7 economies for the recent decade," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 257-272, Autumn.
    20. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 667-688, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    : Money; Stock Prices; Pakistan; Long Run Relationship; Market Efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.