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Can Money Supply Predict Stock Prices?


  • Sara Alatiqi
  • Shokoofeh Fazel


A positive causal relation from money supply to stock prices is frequently hypothesized by some financial media and financial analysts. The basis of this assertion is an assumed negative causal relation from money supply to interest rates, and a negative causal relation from interest rates to stock prices. In this paper, we argue against a stable causal relation from money supply to stock prices. An empirical analysis, based on cointegration and Granger Causality tests, supports our argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Alatiqi & Shokoofeh Fazel, . "Can Money Supply Predict Stock Prices?," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:mts:jrnlee:200810

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    2. Gupta, Manak C., 1974. "Money Supply and Stock Prices: A Probabilistic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 57-68, January.
    3. Kraft, John & Kraft, Arthur, 1977. "Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 417-425, May.
    4. Pesando, James E, 1974. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices: Further Observations on the Econometric Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 909-921, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    4. Chin-Hong Puah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2010. "Is money neutral in stock market? The case of Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1852-1861.
    5. Sirucek, Martin, 2012. "Effect of money supply on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index," MPRA Paper 68167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    6. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Miao Jia, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes," International Journal of Management and Economics, De Gruyter Open, vol. 51(1), pages 9-19, September.
    8. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2011. "Monetary Shocks or Real Shocks, Which matters the most for Share Prices," MPRA Paper 34730, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    9. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2014. "Sensitivity Of Stock Prices To Money Supply Dynamics," MPRA Paper 77924, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    10. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu
      [Money supply and US stock market causality]
      ," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.

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