IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v10y2000i4p379-387.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock returns and real activity: is there still a connection?

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Binswanger

Abstract

Several studies published in the early 1990s found that a large fraction of stock return variations can be explained by future values of measures of real activity in the United States by using data samples from the 1950s to the 1980s. This paper presents evidence that the relation does not hold up any more during the most recent stock market boom since the early 1980s indicating that stock returns ceased to lead real economic activity. Therefore, the current stock market boom seems to be fundamentally different from the first stock market boom after World War II from the late 1940s to the mid-1960s, when the stock market was clearly leading real activity. A possible explanation of our results is the existence of bubbles or fads which make movements of stock prices more independent from subsequent changes in real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Binswanger, 2000. "Stock returns and real activity: is there still a connection?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 379-387.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:4:p:379-387
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100050031507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100050031507
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    2. Mathias Binswanger, 1999. "Stock Markets, Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1749.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Mehrara, 2007. "The Relationship between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables: a Case Study for Iran," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 12(1), pages 51-62, winter.
    2. Everett, Craig R. & K., John, 2013. "Private Businesses Predict Limited Growth for 2013," MPRA Paper 55528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Croux, Christophe & Reusens, Peter, 2013. "Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 93-103.
    4. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    5. repec:eut:journl:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:137 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    8. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    9. Kwame Mireku & Kwaku Sarkodie & Kwasi Poku, 2013. "Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 32-43, April.
    10. Amir Kia, 2001. "Forward-looking Agents and Macroeconomic Determinants of the Equity Price in a Small Open Economy," Emory Economics 0103, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    11. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:176-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michael D. McKenzie & William H. Janeway, 2011. "Venture capital funds and the public equity market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(3), pages 764-786, September.
    13. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš, 2012. "Stock returns and real activity: the dynamic conditional lagged correlation approach," MPRA Paper 43307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Breakdowns and revivals: the long-run relationship between the stock market and real economic activity in the G-7 countries," MPRA Paper 43306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Javed Iqbal & Aziz Haider, 2005. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 123-139, Jan-Jun.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:4:p:379-387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.