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The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity

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  • Kim, Jeong-Ryeol

Abstract

In this paper, we use a modified concept of Granger-(non)causality in reconsidering the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation known in the literature as stock return-inflation puzzle. Based on the quarterly data for Germany including stock returns, inflation rates and growth rates of gross domestic production, it turns out that the proxy causality between stock returns and inflation may be regarded as an asymmetric one, and the indicative role of stock returns may be also asymmetrically Granger-causal to the growth rates of gross domestic production.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "The stock return-inflation puzzle and the asymmetric causality in stock returns, inflation and real activity," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4198
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu-Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
    2. Chih-Chuan Yeh & Ching-Fang Chi, 2009. "The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 167-186, July.
    3. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:18:p:1794-1807 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2007. "L'inflation et la rentabilité des actions : une relation énigmatique et un casse-tête pour les banques centrales," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 177(1), pages 19-34.
    5. Claudiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Papers 1603.01231, arXiv.org.
    6. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "L'identité de Fisher et l'interaction entre l'inflation et la rentabilité des actions: l'importance des régimes sous-jacents aux marchés boursiers," BCL working papers 18, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Karagianni Stella & Kyrtsou Catherine, 2011. "Analysing the Dynamics between U.S. Inflation and Dow Jones Index Using Non-Linear Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, ZhaoLai & You, WanHai & Zeng, Zhaofa, 2015. "Revisiting the asymmetric dynamic dependence of stock returns: Evidence from a quantile autoregression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 142-153.
    9. Kim, Jae H. & Ryoo, Heajin H., 2011. "Common stocks as a hedge against inflation: Evidence from century-long US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 168-171.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Proxy hypothesis; Granger-causality; asymmetry; threshold; nonlinearity;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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