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Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis

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  • Lee, Bong Soo

Abstract

Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the stock return-inflation relation. The Modigliani and Cohn's inflation illusion hypothesis has received renewed attention. Another hypothesis is the two-regime hypothesis. We reexamine these hypotheses using long sample data of the US and international data. We find that the inflation illusion hypothesis can explain the post-war negative stock return-inflation relation, but it is not compatible with the pre-war positive relation. Using a structural VAR identification method, we show that there are two regimes with positive and negative stock return-inflation relations not only in each period of the US but also in every developed country we consider. This seems inconsistent with the inflation illusion hypothesis that predicts only a negative relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1257-1273
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    Cited by:

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    2. Oxman, Jeffrey, 2012. "Price inflation and stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 385-388.
    3. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2016. "Time-Varying Correlations between Inflation and Stock Prices in the United States over the Last Two Centuries," Working Papers 201605, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    5. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    6. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    7. Akturk, Halit, 2014. "Do Stock Returns Provide a Good Hedge Against Inflation? An Empirical Assessment Using Turkish Data during Periods of Structural Change," MPRA Paper 64465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lee, Bong Soo & Ryu, Doojin, 2012. "Stock returns and implied volatility: A new VAR approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-51, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00288 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aktürk, Halit, 2016. "Do stock returns provide a good hedge against inflation? An empirical assessment using Turkish data during periods of structural change," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-246.
    11. Bee-Hoong Tay & Pei-Tha Gan, 2016. "The Determinants of Investment Rewards: Evidence for Selected Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1180-1188.
    12. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
    14. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    15. Kwak, Minsuk & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2014. "Optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 59-71.
    16. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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