IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis

  • Lee, Bong Soo
Registered author(s):

    Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the stock return-inflation relation. The Modigliani and Cohn's inflation illusion hypothesis has received renewed attention. Another hypothesis is the two-regime hypothesis. We reexamine these hypotheses using long sample data of the US and international data. We find that the inflation illusion hypothesis can explain the post-war negative stock return-inflation relation, but it is not compatible with the pre-war positive relation. Using a structural VAR identification method, we show that there are two regimes with positive and negative stock return-inflation relations not only in each period of the US but also in every developed country we consider. This seems inconsistent with the inflation illusion hypothesis that predicts only a negative relation.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-4XRYVHC-2/2/d76156323d31f364db55ff08c6534c2d
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1257-1273

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1257-1273
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
    2. Cai, Yijie & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Li, Dan, 2009. "Explaining international stock correlations with CPI fluctuations and market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2026-2035, November.
    3. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
    4. Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," Scholarly Articles 3196090, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B, 1986. "Inflation and Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 585-605, May.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 471-72, June.
    11. Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    12. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 241-75.
    13. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    15. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September.
    16. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
    18. James, Christopher & Koreisha, Sergio & Partch, Megan, 1985. " A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1375-84, December.
    19. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
    20. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 29-61, March.
    22. Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-18.
    23. Kaul, Gautam & Seyhun, H Nejat, 1990. " Relative Price Variability, Real Shocks, and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 479-96, June.
    24. Stulz, Rene M, 1986. " Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 209-23, March.
    25. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    26. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    27. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
    28. Kaul, Gautam, 1990. "Monetary Regimes and the Relation between Stock Returns and Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 307-321, September.
    29. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. " Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-603, September.
    30. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    31. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1989. "Solving, estimating, and testing a nonlinear stochastic equilibrium model, with an example of the asset returns and inflation relationship," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 499-531, October.
    32. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2003. " Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 207-31, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1257-1273. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.