IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching

Listed author(s):
  • Kanas, Angelos

We find evidence of regime switching dynamics in the USA and the UK real interest rates over the period 1881-2003. For the UK, there is a regime in which the real interest rate displays a relatively stronger mean-reversion and a regime in which it displays a relatively weaker mean-reversion. The former regime is characterized by a relatively larger error in the estimation of the reversion parameter, and higher volatility. For the USA, the two regimes differ in volatility. The probability of transition from one regime to another is found to be significantly related to the inflation rate regime, and to the political regime. The results highlight the importance of regime switching in the dynamics of the real interest rate, as well as the role of inflation and political regimes in explaining this switching.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(07)00041-6
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 2089-2098

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2089-2098
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Walsh, Carl E, 1988. "Testing for Real Effects of Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 393-401, August.
  4. Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "A common shift in real interest rates across countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 365-369.
  5. Breeden, Douglas T., 1986. "Consumption, production, inflation and interest rates : A synthesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-39, May.
  6. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes, 2002. "Asymmetric dynamics in UK real interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 379-387.
  7. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  8. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
  9. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
  10. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-334, August.
  11. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-154, March-Apr.
  12. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1999. "On the Fisher effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 105-130, August.
  13. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000.
  14. Ahn, Chang Mo & Thompson, Howard E, 1988. " Jump-Diffusion Processes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 155-174, March.
  15. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  16. Bekdache, Basma, 1998. "Alternative Approaches to Modeling Time Variation in the Case of the U.S. Real Interest Rate," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 41-51, April.
  17. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  18. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  19. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
  20. Schwert, G. William, 1986. "The time series behavior of real interest rates A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 275-287, January.
  21. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
  22. Lai, Kon S, 1997. "Long-Term Persistence in the Real Interest Rate: Some Evidence of a Fractional Unit Root," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 225-235, July.
  23. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 2000. "A note on nonstationarity, structural breaks, and the Fisher effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 695-707, May.
  24. Bekdache, Basma, 1999. "The Time-Varying Behaviour of Real Interest Rates: A Re-evaluation of the Recent Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 171-190, March-Apr.
  25. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  26. Antoncic, Madelyn, 1986. "High and Volatile Real Interest Rates: Where Does the Fed Fit In?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 18-27, February.
  27. Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-427, June.
  28. Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "Real Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Activity," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 95-113, Summer.
  29. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  30. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
  31. Kanas, Angelos & Genius, Margarita, 2005. "Regime (non)stationarity in the US/UK real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 407-413, June.
  32. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-621, November.
  33. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2006. "A comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1269-1290, April.
  34. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2089-2098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.