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Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence for the G7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Clemente

    (U. Zaragoza)

  • Antonio Montañes

    (U. Zaragoza)

  • Marcelo Reyes

    (U. Zaragoza)

Abstract

This paper challenges the commonly used unit root/cointegration approach for testing the Fisher effect for the economies of the G7 countries. We first prove that nominal interest and inflation rate can be better represented as being broken trend stationary variables. Later, we use the Bai-Perron procedure to show the existence of structural changes in the Fisher equation. When these characteristics are taken into account the Fisher hypothesis we can only offer evidence in favor of this hypothesis for the US, the French and the Japanese economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Clemente & Antonio Montañes & Marcelo Reyes, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence for the G7 countries," Econometrics 0401005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0401005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on win98; pages: 30
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Zheng & Zeng, Jingjing & Hensher, David A., 2023. "An efficient approach to structural breaks and the case of automobile gasoline consumption in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    3. Marilena Furno, 2021. "Cointegration tests at the quantiles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1087-1100, January.
    4. Nepal, Rabindra & Zhao, Xiaomeng & Liu, Yang & Dong, Kangyin, 2024. "Can green finance strengthen energy resilience? The case of China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Maghyereh, A. & Al-Zoubi, H., 2006. "Does Fisher Effect Apply in Developing Countries: Evidence From a Nonlinear Cotrending Test applied to Argentina, Brazil, Malysia, Mexico, Korea and Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    6. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.
    7. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Euro area inflation in the era of COVID‐19: A permanent or a transitory phenomenon?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(3), pages 231-245, June.
    9. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, March.
    10. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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