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Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect

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  • Markku Lanne

    (Research Unit on Economic Structures and Growth, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 54 , FIN-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

Tests of the Fisher effect are plagued by high persistence in interest rates. Instead of standard regression analysis and asymptotic results, methods relying on local-to-unity asymptotics are employed in testing for the Fisher effect with monthly U.S. data covering the period 1953:1-1990:12. These procedures are extensions of a recently presented method (Cavanagh, Elliott and Stock (1995)) based on simultaneous confidence intervals, and they have the advantage of being asymptotically valid whether interest rates are integrated of order one or zero, or near unit root processes. Taking appropriately account of the near unit root problem the findings in most of the previous literature are reconfirmed. There is support for the Fisher effect in the interest rate targeting period (1953:1-1979:10) of the Federal Reserve but not in the 1979:11-1990:12 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne, 2001. "Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 357-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:2:p:357-366
    Note: received: July 1999/Final version received: April 2000
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    Cited by:

    1. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2016. "Inflation persistence, learning dynamics and the rationality of inflation expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 963-979, November.
    2. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
    3. Helen Louri & Petros M. Migiakis, 2016. "Bank Lending Margins in the Euro Area: The Effects of Financial Fragmentation and ECB Policies," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 105, European Institute, LSE.
    4. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168, December.
    5. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 493-511.
    6. Nektarios Aslanidis & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "Has the Financial Crisis affected the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
    8. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    9. Harun UCAK & Ilhan OZTURK & Alper ASLAN, 2014. "An Examination of Fisher Effect for Selected New EU Member States," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 956-959.
    10. Mustafa Kasim & Bentouir Naima, 2018. "The Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Nominal Interest Rate in Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela: Revisiting Fisher’s Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 7(4), pages 214-224, November.
    11. Mpho Bosupeng, 2015. "The Fisher Effect Using Differences in The Deterministic Term," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1031-1031.
    12. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 714-737.
    13. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
    14. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Interest Rates Determination and Crisis Puzzle (Empirical Evidence from the European Transition Economies)," MPRA Paper 43756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "On The Fisher Effect: A Review," MPRA Paper 77916, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    16. Jesús Clemente & María Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañés & Marcelo Reyes, 2017. "Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    18. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
    19. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    20. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
    21. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 389-409, June.
    22. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    23. Helen Louri & Petros M. Migiakis, 2015. "Determinants of euro-area bank lending margins: financial fragmentation and ECB policies," Working Papers 198, Bank of Greece.
    24. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher effect · near unit root · monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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