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Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated

  • Erik Hjalmarsson
  • Par Osterholm

We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we show that in a system with near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. The spurious rejection rate can be reduced by performing additional tests of restrictions on the cointegrating vector(s), although it is still substantially larger than the nominal size.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2007/915/default.htm
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2007/915/ifdp915.pdf
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 915.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:915
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  1. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  2. Wallace, Myles S & Warner, John T, 1993. "The Fisher Effect and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Tests of Cointegration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 320-24, May.
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  4. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Basher, Syed A. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Is there Really a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? More Evidence from Panel Data Models," MPRA Paper 136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
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  13. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  14. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, 03.
  15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  17. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  18. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
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  27. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Finland," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 577-599, October.
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