Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated
We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we show that in a system with near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. The spurious rejection rate can be reduced by performing additional tests of restrictions on the cointegrating vector(s), although it is still substantially larger than the nominal size.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
781R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1987.
- Par Osterholm, 2004. "Killing four unit root birds in the US economy with three panel unit root test stones," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 213-216.
- Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Finland," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 577-599, October.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997.
"The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
- Wu, Jhy-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. " Mean Reversion of Interest Rates in the Eurocurrency Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 459-73, September.
- Wallace, Myles S & Warner, John T, 1993. "The Fisher Effect and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Tests of Cointegration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 320-24, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.
- Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Soettem, Frode, 2001. " Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-45, March.
- By Gunnar Jonsson, 2001. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 2.
- Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-21, November.
- By May Khamis & Alfredo M. Leone, 2001. "Can Currency Demand Be Stable Under a Financial Crisis? The Case of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 6.
- Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006.
"Efficient tests of stock return predictability,"
3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
- Eliane A. Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Working Papers 98/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October.
- Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
- Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
- Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
- Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
- Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
- Syed Basher & Joakim Westerlund, 2007.
"Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 161-164.
- Basher, Syed A. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Is there Really a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? More Evidence from Panel Data Models," MPRA Paper 136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004.
"The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, 03.
- Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2003. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," Working papers 2003-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Brigitte Granville & Sushanta Mallick, 2004. "Fisher hypothesis: UK evidence over a century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 87-90.
- Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marlene Vikor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.