IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors

  • Michael Jansson
  • Marcelo J. Moreira

This paper considers the problem of conducting inference on the regression coefficient in a bivariate regression model with a highly persistent regressor. Gaussian asymptotic power envelopes are obtained for a class of testing procedures that satisfy a conditionality restriction. In addition, the paper proposes testing procedures that attain these power envelopes whether or not the innovations of the regression model are normally distributed. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 681-714

in new window

Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:681-714
Contact details of provider: Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1988. "Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals Via Martingale Approximations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 528-533, December.
  2. Jeganathan, P., 1997. "On Asymptotic Inference in Linear Cointegrated Time Series Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 692-745, October.
  3. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Confidence Sets for Cointegrating Coefficients Based on Stationarity Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 211-22, April.
  4. de Jong, R.M. & Davidson, J., 1996. "Consistency of Kernel Estimators of Heteroscedastic and Autocorrelated Covariance Matrices," Discussion Paper 1996-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2047, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0913, Econometric Society.
  8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  10. Jansson, Michael, 2002. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation For Linear Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1449-1459, December.
  11. Niels Haldrup & Michael Jansson, 2005. "Improving Size and Power in Unit Root Testing," Economics Working Papers 2005-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Lanne, M., 2000. "Testing the Predictability of Stock Returns," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 488, Department of Economics.
  13. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
  14. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
  15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  16. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 967-72, July.
  17. Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  18. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 927-997, December.
  19. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-43, September.
  20. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
  21. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  23. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  24. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
  25. Abadir, Karim M. & Larsson, Rolf, 1996. "The Joint Moment Generating Function of Quadratic Forms in Multivariate Autoregressive Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 682-704, October.
  26. Jonathan H. Wright, 1999. "A simple approach to robust inference in a cointegrating system," International Finance Discussion Papers 654, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  28. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  29. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  30. Feigin, Paul D., 1986. "Asymptotic theory of conditional inference for stochastic processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 89-102, May.
  31. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
  32. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
  33. Jeganathan, P., 1995. "Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 818-887, October.
  34. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
  35. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
  37. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "The Term Structure with Highly Persistent Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8x91m4hg, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:681-714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.