Testing The Predictability Of Stock Returns
Previous literature indicates that stock returns are predictable by several strongly autocorrelated forecasting variables, especially at longer horizons. It is suggested that this finding is spurious and follows from a neglected near unit root problem. Instead of the commonly used t-test, we propose a test that can be considered as a general test of whether the return can be predicted by any highly persistent variable. Using this test, no predictability is found for U.S. stock return data from the period 1928-1996. Simulation experiments show that the standard t-test clearly overrejects whereas our proposed test controls size much better. © 2002 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:84:y:2002:i:3:p:407-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kristin Waites)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.