IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A simple approach to robust inference in a cointegrating system

  • Jonathan H. Wright

Cointegration requires all the variables in the system to have exact unit roots; accordingly it is conventional for researchers to test for a unit root in each variable prior to a cointegration analysis. Unfortunately, these unit root tests are not powerful. Meanwhile, conventional cointegration methods are not at all robust to slight violations of the requirement that each variable have a unit root. In this paper I show how this difficulty may be circumvented by instrumenting the regressors in the cointegrating regression by deterministic polynomial time trends or by artificially generated random walks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/654/default.htm
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/654/ifdp654.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 654.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:654
Contact details of provider: Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  3. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  7. Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989. "Long-run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," NBER Working Papers 2949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
  9. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  10. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
  11. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Confidence Sets for Cointegrating Coefficients Based on Stationarity Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 211-22, April.
  12. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  13. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:654. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.