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Low-frequency robust cointegration testing

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  • Müller, Ulrich K.
  • Watson, Mark W.

Abstract

Standard inference in cointegrating models is fragile because it relies on an assumption of an I(1) model for the common stochastic trends, which may not accurately describe the data’s persistence. This paper considers low-frequency tests about cointegrating vectors under a range of restrictions on the common stochastic trends. We quantify how much power can potentially be gained by exploiting correct restrictions, as well as the magnitude of size distortions if such restrictions are imposed erroneously. A simple test motivated by the analysis in Wright (2000) is developed and shown to be approximately optimal for inference about a single cointegrating vector in the unrestricted stochastic trend model.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:174:y:2013:i:2:p:66-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.09.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Hwang, Jungbin & Sun, Yixiao, 2016. "Simple, Robust, and Accurate F and t Tests in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt82k1x4rd, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    3. Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Moreira, Marcelo J., 2013. "Contributions to the Theory of Optimal Tests," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 747, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    4. repec:rsr:journl:v:65:y:2017:i:3:p:17-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Khalaf, Lynda & Urga, Giovanni, 2014. "Identification robust inference in cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 385-396.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic trends; Persistence; Size distortion; Interest rates; Term spread;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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