IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Tracking U.S. Inflation Expectations with Domestic and Global Indicators

  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    ()

    (University of Padua)

Are foreign variables important for tracking U.S. inflation expectations? This paper estimates a reduced-form model which takes into account both domestic and global indicators of economic slack as well as inflationary pressures. Our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated parameters over the last four decades. In particular, global indicators appear to have played a significant role in shaping forecasters' expectations until the mid-'80s. By contrast, the U.S. monetary policy stance turns out to be relevant in the '80s and '90s. We relate this finding to the more aggressive monetary policy conduct implemented by the Fed since the end of the Volcker experiment.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economia.unipd.it/sites/decon.unipd.it/files/20060031.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0031.

as
in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0031
Contact details of provider: Postal:
via del Santo, 33 - 35122 Padova

Phone: +39 +49 8274210
Fax: +39 +49 827.4211
Web page: http://www.decon.unipd.it/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, 08.
  2. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1273-1307, October.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Ernst Schaumburg & Andrea Tambalotti, 2003. "An Investigation of the Gains from Commitment in Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0302004, EconWPA.
  7. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  8. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Milani, Fabio, 2012. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 204-229, April.
  11. Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 7800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Acemoglu, Daron & Pischke, Jörn-Steffen, 1998. "The Structure of Wages and Investment in General Training," CEPR Discussion Papers 1833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Mion, Giordano & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanization Externalities, Market Potential and Spatial Sorting of Skills and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 5172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Guido De Blasio & Sabrina Di Addario, 2002. "Labor market pooling: evidence from Italian industrial districts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 453, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  16. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christopher Otrok & Ayhan Kose & Mario J. Crucini, 2009. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 820, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  19. Hakan Kara, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Imperfect Commitment : Reconciling Theory with Evidence," Working Papers 0415, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  20. Brunello, Giorgio & Medio, Alfredo, 2001. "An explanation of international differences in education and workplace training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 307-322, February.
  21. David Soskice, 1994. "Reconciling Markets and Institutions: The German Apprenticeship System," NBER Chapters, in: Training and the Private Sector: International Comparisons, pages 25-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Strange, William C., 2004. "Evidence on the nature and sources of agglomeration economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2119-2171 Elsevier.
  23. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Neal, Derek, 1995. "Industry-Specific Human Capital: Evidence from Displaced Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 653-77, October.
  25. Antonio Ciccone & Robert E. Hall, 1995. "Productivity and the density of economic activity," Economics Working Papers 120, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  26. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  27. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  28. D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
  29. Antonio Ciccone, 1998. "Agglomeration-effects in Europe," Economics Working Papers 499, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 1999.
  30. Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2005. "Validating multiple structural change models-a case study," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 685-690.
  31. Henderson, Vernon & Kuncoro, Ari & Turner, Matt, 1995. "Industrial Development in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1067-90, October.
  32. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Globalization and Monetary Control," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 13-77 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 187-196, 02.
  34. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  35. James Albrecht & Susan Vroman, 2000. "A Matching Model with Endogenous Skill Requirements," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0774, Econometric Society.
  36. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  37. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
  38. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
  39. Mark A. Loewenstein & James R. Spletzer, 1999. "General and Specific Training: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(4), pages 710-733.
  40. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Anselin, Luc & Varga, Attila & Acs, Zoltan, 1997. "Local Geographic Spillovers between University Research and High Technology Innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 422-448, November.
  42. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
  43. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2007. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Working Paper Series 27_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  44. Martin Cerisola & R. G Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Jane E. Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah J. Lindner & Jaime R. Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  47. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  48. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Raffaele Dei Campielisi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.