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What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?

  • Mario J. Crucini

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent)

  • M. Ayhan Kose

    ()

    (Financial Studies Division, Research Department, International Monetary Fund)

  • Christopher Otrok

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Virginia)

We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the G-7 component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu08-w15.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0815.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0815
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model," Cahiers de recherche 2000-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Peter J. Klenow & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2004. "Externalities and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gregory, Allan W. & Head, Allen C., 1999. "Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 423-451, December.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  8. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
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  10. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  11. David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
  14. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  16. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  17. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  18. Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994. "Measuring World Business Cycles," Working Papers 902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  19. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  20. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 204-20, May.
  22. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
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