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Finance and Synchronization

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  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
  • Imbs, Jean
  • Saleheen, Jumana

Abstract

It is well known that the bulk of international financial flows across countries are driven by common shocks. In response to these common shocks, we find that capital tends to flow systematically between the same types of countries, while the discrepancy between GDP growth rates widens. Thus, in the data synchronization falls when financial linkages rise, but only so in response to common shocks. In contrast, financial linkages tend to increase the synchronization of business cycles in response to purely country-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Imbs, Jean & Saleheen, Jumana, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 11037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11037
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. International business cycle synchronization: what is the role of financial linkages?
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2016-04-06 11:30:09

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    2. Beyer,Robert Carl Michael & Milivojevic,Lazar, 2020. "Dynamics and Synchronization of Global Equilibrium Interest Rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9489, The World Bank.
    3. Gong, Chi & Kim, Soyoung, 2018. "Regional business cycle synchronization in emerging and developing countries: Regional or global integration? Trade or financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 42-57.
    4. Hannes Boehm & Julia Schaumburg & Lena Tonzer, 2020. "Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, June.
    6. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2020. "Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 272-287.
    7. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. An, Jiyoun & Kim, Kyunghun & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2021. "Does debt market integration amplify the international transmission of business cycles during financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Papers wp471, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    12. Martin R. Goetz & Juan Carlos Gozzi, 2020. "Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1305, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle Synchronization; Common Shocks; Contagion; Financial Linkages; Idiosyncratic Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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