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Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation: On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Roberta De Santis
  • Alessandro Girardi

Abstract

Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro period of diverging patterns between the core and the peripheral EMU countries raising questions about the future stability of EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roberta De Santis & Alessandro Girardi, 2013. "Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation: On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1277, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1277
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Jara & Néstor Romero, 2016. "Sincronía internacional de los precios de la vivienda," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 76-91, April.
    2. Philip Arestis & Peter Phelps, 2016. "Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 525-543, May.
    3. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju.
    4. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2017. "Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented?," NBP Working Papers 263, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    5. Roberta De Santis & Tatiana Cesaroni, 2016. "Current Account ‘Core–Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1514-1538, October.
    6. Alberto Coco & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative SVAR analysis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 95-114.
    7. repec:eee:rujoec:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:280-295 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.
    10. repec:eco:journ1:2017-06-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2017. "Output gap similarities in Europe: Detecting country groups," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 305, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Tatiana Cesaroni & Roberta De Santis, 2017. "Dynamics of net foreign asset components in the EMU," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    13. repec:eee:jmacro:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:12-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
    15. Cesaroni, Tatiana & De Santis, Roberta, 2015. "Current Account ‘Core-Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," CEPS Papers 10317, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output synchronisation; trade intensity; endogeneity; European Monetary Union (EMU);

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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