IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery

  • Sybille Lehwald

Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, I examine the comovement of output, investmentand consumption growth among Euro area countries before and after the introduction of theEuro. For that purpose, I compare a pre-Euro period (1991–1998) to a Euro period(2000–2010) and identify a common Euro factor for each period separately. I find thatthe comovement of main macroeconomic variables and the common factor increases forcore Eurozone countries from the first to the second period, while it decreases for mostperipheral economies. This can be interpreted as a rise in business cycle synchronizationfor the core and a respective decline for the periphery.Different to the implications made by the endogeneity argument of currency areas(Frankel and Rose, 1998), my evidence suggest that the introduction of the Euro hasfostered imbalances between core and peripheral Eurozone countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2012/IfoWorkingPaper-122.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 122.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_122
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.deEmail:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.
  3. Yuliya Demyanyk & Vadym Volosovych, 2006. "Gains from Financial Integration in the European Union: Evidence for New and Old Members," Working Papers 06009, Department of Economics, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University, revised Aug 2007.
  4. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, 04.
  6. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2012. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1520-1533.
  7. Hans-Wener Sinn & Teresa Buchen & Timo Wollmershauser, 2011. "Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Measures," Book Chapters, in: Jack T. Boorman & André Icard (ed.), Reform of the International Monetary System: The Palais Royal Initiative, chapter 26, pages 321-342 Emerging Markets Forum.
  8. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Buchen, T. & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2011. "Trade imbalances - causes, consequences and policy measures: Ifo’s statement for the camdessus commission," Munich Reprints in Economics 19568, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
  10. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, May.
  14. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  16. Fritz Breuss, 2011. "EU-Wirtschaftsregierung: Eine notwendige aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung für das Überleben der Eurozone und des Euro," FIW Policy Brief series 012, FIW.
  17. Balli, Faruk & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E, 2011. "Risk Sharing through Capital Gains," CEPR Discussion Papers 8643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
  19. Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13490, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  22. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  23. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Michael Pfaffermayr & Octavio Fernández Amador & Catherine Keppel, 2011. "Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration: Fiscal Policy, Trade Integration and the European Business Cycle," FIW Research Reports series III-004, FIW.
  25. Fritz Breuss, 2011. "Downsizing the Eurozone into an OCA or Entry into a Fiscal Transfer Union," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(4), pages 05-12, December.
  26. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  27. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  28. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
  29. Iulia Siedschlag & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Regional output growth synchronisation with the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 203-221, May.
  30. Marc Piopiunik & Martin Schlotter, 2012. "Identifying the Incidence of "Grading on a Curve":A Within-Student Across-Subject Approach," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 121, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  31. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  32. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.