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Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

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  • Moneta, Fabio
  • Rüffer, Rasmus

Abstract

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation. JEL Classification: E30, F00

Suggested Citation

  • Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006671
    Note: 343104
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    2. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Cyn‐Young Park, 2011. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 23-53, January.
    3. Changchun Hua & Douglas H. Brooks, 2010. "Asian Trade and Global Linkages," Working Papers id:3094, eSocialSciences.
    4. Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Asymmetry of the Oil Price Pass Through to Inflation in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.
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    7. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic states and Europe: common factors of economic activity," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, October.
    8. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    9. Ashvin Ahuja & Suchot Piamchol & Bunnaree Punnarach & Tientip Subhanij, 2008. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," Working Papers 2008-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    10. Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera & Vanesa Avalos-Gaytán & Yajaira Cardona Valdés, 2019. "Synchronization of globalized economies," Working Papers 1909, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles synchronisation; dynamic factor model; East Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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