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The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity

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  • Ludmila Fadejeva

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

This paper aims at characterising fluctuations of economic activity that are common for the Baltic States, CEE countries, euro area countries and Russia. The real standardised GDP quarterly growth is chosen as an indicator of economic development of the countries. Three methods are employed: static factor analysis, dynamic factor model and dynamic correlation. Special attention is given to the analysis of Latvian economy. The results of the study show that the Baltic economies are similar in economic development and share a common factor. After 2000, the real standardised GDP growth in the Baltic States became more correlated with the GDP growth of the main euro area countries indicating growing synchronisation of economic development between these country groups. The role of the main final demand components (exports, consumption and investment) in explaining common fluctuations in the real standardised GDP growth in the Baltic States is evaluated by analysing common factors for each component and dynamic correlation between components for each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity," Working Papers 2008/03, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hegerty Scott William, 2017. "Common Cycles and Baltic-Nordic Economic Integration," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 70-81, August.
    2. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.
    3. Scott W. Hegerty, 2019. "Common Baltic-Nordic business cycles: Correlation- versus Markov-switching approaches," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(4), December.
    4. Soultanaeva, Albina, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Baltic countries," Umeå Economic Studies 817, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronisation; dynamic factor model; dynamic correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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