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Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)

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  • Papageorgiou, Theofanis
  • Michaelides, Panayotis G.
  • Milios, John G.

Abstract

This paper deals with business cycle synchronization and clustering in Europe. It makes an attempt to answer some fundamental economic questions regarding European countries' business cycles in the 1960-2009 time span, by breaking the period down into three sub-periods based on major institutional changes (i.e. 1960-1991, 1992-1999, 2000-2009) and other relevant criteria. In this context, various techniques have been used, including pair-wise correlation and the so-called rolling window approach, spectral analysis and k-means clustering. Our results seem to suggest a core-periphery distinction in Europe. Also, the paper argues that European countries increased their synchronization in the time period 1992-1999, while the 2000-2009 time span is, in general, characterised by decreasing synchronization and an increase in the number of clusters. Our findings deserve careful screening and thus future research on the subject would be of great interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y::i:5:p:419-470
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    Cited by:

    1. Atukeren, Erdal & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Korkmaz, Turhan, 2015. "Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests," MPRA Paper 76038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
    3. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    4. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    5. Jose Ramon Cancelo, 2012. "Cyclical synchronization in the EMU along the financial crisis: An interpretation of the conflicting signals," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 1(1), pages 86-100, June.
    6. Maria Jesús Delgado-Rodriguez & Sonia De lucas-Santos, 2013. "Testing cyclical convergence with the factor model in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2245-2250.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    8. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy in the EMU Context: An Empirical Approach (1981-2010) & the Recent Reform in European Governance," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 117-136.
    9. repec:eee:joecas:v:13:y:2016:i:c:p:57-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dionysios K. SOLOMOS, Dimitrios N. KOUMPAROULIS, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy in the EMU Context: An empirical approach (1981-2010)," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(31), pages 95-102, February.
    11. repec:kap:compec:v:51:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9628-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    13. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    15. Kovačić, Zlatko & Vilotić, Miloš, 2017. "Assessing European business cycles synchronization," MPRA Paper 79990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    19. Krzysztof Spirzewski, 2016. "Currency competition in the Eurozone: an answer to the crisis," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 12(1), pages 12-20, June.
    20. Anna P. Sandqvist, 2015. "Dynamics of Sectoral Business Cycle Comovement," KOF Working papers 15-398, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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