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EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership

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  • Dmitri Boreiko

Abstract

This paper estimates the readiness of the Accession Countries of Central and East Europe for EMU or for unilateral euroisation using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 Accession Wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance.

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  • Dmitri Boreiko, 2002. "EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 189, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:189
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    File URL: http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc189.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    3. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2002. "EMU and Enlargement," Chapters,in: EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 15 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 102-121, February.
    6. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour leuroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
    2. Marcin Łupiński, 2009. "Four Years After Expansion: Are Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland Closer to Core or Periphery of EMU?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 22.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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