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EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership

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  • Dimitri Boreiko

    (Department of Economics, European University Institute, Via dei Roccettini, 9, San Domenico (FI), 50016, Italy.)

Abstract

This paper estimates the readiness of the Accession Countries of Central and East Europe for EMU or for unilateral euroisation using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 Accession Wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri Boreiko, 2002. "EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership," Working Papers 71, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    CEECs; Optimum currency area; EMU; fuzzy cluster analysis; nominal and real convergence.;
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