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EMU and accession countries: Fuzzy cluster analysis of membership

  • Dmitri Boreiko

    (European University Institute, Italy)

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    This paper estimates the readiness of the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe for EMU or unilateral euroization using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 accession wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.216
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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 309-325

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:8:y:2003:i:4:p:309-325
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    1. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-078, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Accession to the EMU," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, March.
    4. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
    6. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/10, European University Institute.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "EMU and Enlargement," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 481, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 May 2001.
      • Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2002. "EMU and Enlargement," Chapters, in: EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 15 Edward Elgar.
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