IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: the Case of the Accession Countries

  • Jan Babetski
  • Laurence Boone
  • Mathilde Maurel

This paper reviews the pros and cons of an early EU enlargement towards Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs hereafter). Firstly, the Maastricht criteria, which cannot be literally assessed during the catching up process, but that nevertheless mirror the huge efforts undertaken in order to (i) stabilise the economies, (ii) converge towards the EU, and then (iii) participate in the EMU, are analysed. Secondly, real convergence is observed to occur at different rates, depending upon the initial conditions faced and the productivity gains realised by each country. Thirdly, computing the correlation of demand and supply shocks in a sample of Euro countries, such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain, at the time when they were entering the EU and the CEECs, gives some indication of the similarity of the business cycles and economic structures of the CEECs on the one hand, and the EU on the other. However, we argue that looking at static correlation only (averaged over the last decade) is too simplistic, as these averages will be blurred by the transition process. Using the Kalman filter, we are able to compute time varying correlation, hence differentiating between the transition and the most recent period. Our results emphasise an ongoing process of demand shocks convergence, but supply shocks divergence. Various exchange rate strategies are then discussed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://iweb.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp206.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp206.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp206
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 882, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Praha 1
Phone: (+420) 224 005 123
Fax: (+420) 224 005 333
Web page: http://www.cerge-ei.cz
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Mathilde Maurel, 2002. "Impacts économiques et sociaux de l'élargissement pour l'Union européenne et la France," Working Papers 2002-03, CEPII research center.
  2. Jacques Mélitz & Frédéric Zumer, 2000. "Interregional and International Risk Sharing and Lessons for EMU," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 2, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Teolis, David P. & von Furstenberg, George M., 1993. "Reducing real exchange rate variability and drift: Mexico on the way to North American monetary union?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 253-269.
  5. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
  9. Kutan, Ali M. & Pautola-Mol, Niina, 2001. "Integration of the Baltic states into the EU and institutions of fiscal convergence: A critical evaluation of key issues and empirical evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 10-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. Jürgen Kröger & Denis Redonnet, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Integration: The Case of the Accession Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 6-13, October.
  11. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  12. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kutan, Ali M. & Pautola-Mol, Niina, 2002. "Integration of the Baltic States into the EU and Institutions of Fiscal Convergence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Kocenda, Evzen, 1999. "Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Daniel Gros, 2000. "How Fit are the Candidates for EMU?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(10), pages 1367-1377, October.
  16. repec:cai:recosp:reco_p1999_50n6_1123 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Soft Budget Constraints and Banking in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 18-40, March.
  18. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies," IMF Working Papers 00/70, International Monetary Fund.
  19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/765 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
  21. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jana Koudelkova)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.