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Ladhésion des Peco (Pays dEurope Centrale et Orientale) à l'Union européenne et l'endogénéité des chocs d'offre et de demande

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  • Jan Babetskii

Abstract

[fre] Selon la Commission (1990 ), une intégration plus étroite entraîne une moindre fréquence des chocs asymétriques et des cycles économiques mieux synchronisés entre pays . Mais pour Krugman (1993 ), une intégration plus étroite égale une plus forte spécialisation et apporte donc un risque plus élevé de chocs idiosyncrasiques . Le présent article cherche à déterminer lequel de ces deux arguments est corroboré par les données disponibles sur les Peco (Pays d ’ Europe Centrale et Orientale ). Ceci est fait en confrontant l ’ évolution dans le temps des coefficients caractérisant l ’ asymétrie des chocs d ’ offre et de demande aux indicateurs d ’ intensité des échanges et de taux de change . Nous constatons que (i ) une intensité accrue des échanges commerciaux mène à une plus forte symétrie des chocs de demande et l ’ effet de l ’ intégration au niveau de l ’ asymétrie des chocs d ’ offre est variable d ’ un pays à l ’ autre ; (ii ) une réduction de la volatilité des taux de change a un impact positif sur la convergence des chocs de demande . Les résultats confirment donc la position de la Commission européenne et aussi l ’ argument de Kenen (2001 ) selon lequel l ’ impact de l ’ intégration commerciale sur l ’ asymétrie des chocs dépend des types des chocs . Mots-clés : élargissement , cycle économique , échanges commerciaux , ZMO (zone monétaire optimale ) [eng] EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of Some OCA Criteria : Evidence from the CEECs . by Ian Babetskii . The European Commission (1990 ) reports that closer integration reduces the frequency of asymmetric shocks and synchronizes business cycles more between countries . However , Krugman (1993 ) posits that closer integration entails greater specialization and hence greater risks of individual shocks . This paper draws on evidence from a group of CEEC countries to determine which argument is supported by the data . It does so by comparing supply and demand shock asymmetry coefficients with trade intensity and exchange rate indicators over time . We find that (i ) an increase in trade intensity gives rise to greater demand shock symmetry and the effect of integration on supply shock asymmetry varies from country to country ; (ii ) a decrease in exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on demand shock convergence . The results confirm the European Commission ’ s view and Kenen ’ s argument (2001 ) that the effect of trade integration on shock asymmetry depends on the type of shock . Keywords : EU enlargement , business cycle , trade , OCA (optimal currency area )

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babetskii, 2004. "Ladhésion des Peco (Pays dEurope Centrale et Orientale) à l'Union européenne et l'endogénéité des chocs d'offre et de demande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 33-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7341
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2004.7341
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7341
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