IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2002-222.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Michael Frenkel
  • Mr. Christiane Nickel

Abstract

In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregression model to identify and compare demand and supply shocks between euro area countries and central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The shocks and the shock adjustment dynamics of these countries are also compared to EU countries that currently do not participate in the EMU. Focusing on the period 1993-2001, we find that there are still differences in the shocks and in the adjustment process to shocks between the euro area and the CEECs. However, several individual CEECs exhibit shocks and shock adjustment processes that are fairly similar to some euro area countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Michael Frenkel & Mr. Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2002/222, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/222
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16205
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melitz, Jacques & Weber, Axel A, 1996. "The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. U. Michael Bergman & Michael M. Hutchison & Yin-Wong Cheung, "undated". "Should the Nordic Countries Join A European Monetary Union? An Empirical Analysis," EPRU Working Paper Series 97-21, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
    6. von Hagen, Jurgen & Neumann, Manfred J M, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates within and between Currency Areas: How Far Away Is EMU?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 236-244, May.
    7. Funke, Michael, 1997. "The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 461-469, August.
    8. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/005, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Backé, Peter & Thimann, Christian & Arratibel, Olga & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Mehl, Arnaud & Nerlich, Carolin, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro: an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    3. Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    5. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro‐Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 538-555, December.
    6. Aslanidis, Nektarios, 2007. "Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach," Working Papers 2072/5318, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Damjan Kozamernik, 2004. "The ERM II issues: An interpretation of the Slovenian approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(4), pages 268-279, December.
    8. Tanja Broz, 2010. "Introduction of the euro in CEE countries - is it economically justifiable? The Croatian case," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 427-447.
    9. Raoul Lättemäe & Martti Randveer, 2004. "Monetary policy and EMU enlargement: Issues regarding ERM II and adoption of the euro in Estonia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(4), pages 293-301, December.
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    11. Henryk Bąk & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2017. "The symmetry of demand and supply shocks in the European Monetary Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 1-44.
    12. Martins Bitans & Egils Kauzens, 2004. "Impact of the Euro Adoption on the Economy of Latvia," Working Papers 2004/02, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Kalina Durova, 2019. "Are the New Member States Ready to Join the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 72-95.
    14. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society.
    15. Süppel, Ralph, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    16. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2007. "Monetary policy shocks in the new EU members: a VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1147-1161.
    17. Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
    18. Jan Babetskii, 2004. "Ladhésion des Peco (Pays dEurope Centrale et Orientale) à l'Union européenne et l'endogénéité des chocs d'offre et de demande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 33-49.
    19. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Igor Velickovski, 2013. "Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-156, August.
    4. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
    5. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Velimir Šonje & Igeta Vrbanc, 2000. "Measuring the Similarities of Economic Developments in Central Europe: A Correlation between the Business Cycles of Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia," Working Papers 3, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    7. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.
    8. Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
    9. Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
    10. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Raoul Lättemäe, 2003. "EMU Accession Issues in Baltic Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17a, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
    12. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    16. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
    17. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-31.
    18. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    19. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    20. János Gács, 2003. "Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 271-303, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.