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The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union

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  • Melitz, Jacques
  • Weber, Axel A

Abstract

In order to study the costs/benefits of a monetary union between Germany and France, we attempt to go beyond a mere focus on asymmetries and examine what each country would have lost or gained had there been a common monetary policy. We try to identify the macroeconomic effects of such a change within a structural VAR model, which is first estimated by employing mixed long-run and short-run identification schemes, and subsequently simulated under the restrictions of a common monetary policy. Our analysis centres on the effect of identical monetary policy on movements in output, inflation and the current account. We also study the effects on interest rate differentials in order to draw possible inferences about monetary integration. Based on the usual interpretations of national preferences in both countries, the results imply that, if anything, Germany would lose from any French participation in the setting of domestic monetary policy. By contrast, however, France would clearly gain from corresponding German participation in French decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Melitz, Jacques & Weber, Axel A, 1996. "The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1374
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 1999. "Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model," Working papers 60, Banque de France.
    2. FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Overall Macroeconomic Assessment," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 6, pages 143-169, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    4. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    5. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
    6. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
    8. Eduard Hochreiter & Pierre Siklos, 2004. "From Floating to Monetary Union: The Economic Distance between Exchange Rate Regimes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2004/5 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    9. Catherine Bruno, 1997. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et régime de changes : une comparaison France - Allemagne - Etats-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 139-164.
    10. Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Tourism Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 11, pages 321-338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Mr. Michael Frenkel & Mr. Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2002/222, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Massimo Giuliodori, "undated". "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, March.
    18. Dominick Salvatore, 1998. "International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 375-416, January.
    19. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.
    21. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    22. Hochreiter, Eduard & Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-211, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Costs/Benefits; France; Germany; Monetary Union; Optimum Currency Areas; Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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