IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Potential Consequences of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: A Study of Three Candidate Regions

  • Eduard Hochreiter

    ()

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Anton Korinek

    (4118F Tydings Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742,USA,)

  • Pierre L. Siklos

    ()

    (Wilfried Laurier University and Viessmann Research Centre on Modern Europe)

The paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of selecting alternative exchange rate regimes of countries in three regions. In particular, it studies whether Austria, the Netherlands, Canada and New Zealand made the right monetary regime choices between 1970 and 2000. We focus on the role of asymmetric shocks as a core determinant for the evaluation of various monetary regimes by studying the impact of a hard peg, a full monetary union, or floating exchange rates (with or without inflation targeting) on selected macroeconomic variables. Estimates of structural VARs are used to ascertain if the countries under review meet the essential ingredients of an optimum currency area (OCA) and thus are candidates for a monetary union. Counterfactual experiments help to study economic outcomes had these countries pursued alternative monetary strategies. We conclude that a floating regime with inflation targeting is best for Canada, a monetary union with Australia is the best course of action for New Zealand, and monetary union is the appropriate choice for the Netherlands while there are reasons to believe that Austria might have been better off with a floating regime, at least for a time. We also find that good monetary policy is not confined to any particular exchange rate regime and that political and institutional factors weigh heavily in this decision.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Working-Papers/2002/Working-Paper-76/fullversion/wp76_tcm16-6169.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 76.

as
in new window

Length: 63
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:76
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Hoover, 2003. "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Working Papers 05, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
  3. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "Optimal Currency Areas: A Review of the Recent Literature," Working Papers 99-16, Bank of Canada.
  4. Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993. "The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy," Vienna Economics Papers vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  5. A.M.G Coleman & Bob Buckle & A.Grimes, 1989. "Economic notes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, june.
  6. Murray, John, 2000. "Why Canada needs a flexible exchange rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 41-60, August.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  8. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
  9. John Crow, 1999. "Canadian Exchange Rate Policy," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(3), pages 315-319, September.
  10. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-87, October.
  11. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Barry Eichengreen & Jurgen von Hagen, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Is There a Tradeoff between Federalism and Budgetary Restrictions?," NBER Working Papers 5517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 47-54, January.
  15. Melitz, Jacques & Weber, Axel A, 1996. "The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Kletzer, Kenneth & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2000. "Monetary Union and Fiscal Federalism," CEPR Discussion Papers 2615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Charles Freedman & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "A Comment on "The Great Canadian Slump"," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 646-665, August.
  18. David Laidler, 1999. "Canada's Exchange Rate Options," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(3), pages 324-332, September.
  19. Dean Scrimgeour, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and Currency Union: Some theory and New Zealand evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  20. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 167, Central Bank of Chile.
  21. Sachs, Jeffrey & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Siklos,Pierre L., 2006. "The Changing Face of Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521034494.
  23. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  24. Thomas J. Courchene, 1999. "Alternative North American Currency Arrangements: A Research Agenda," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(3), pages 308-314, September.
  25. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Robert G. Gregory, 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting Countries: The Case of Australia and New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Mundell, Robert A., 1999. "A Reconsideration of the Twentieth Century," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1999-5, Nobel Prize Committee.
  28. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
  29. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  30. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  31. Mélitz Jacques & Axel A. Weber, 1996. "The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union," Discussion Paper Serie B 369, University of Bonn, Germany.
  32. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  33. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  35. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  36. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  37. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 238-242, May.
  38. Burdekin, Richard C K & Siklos, Pierre L, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 235-47, May.
  39. Michael Chriszt, 2000. "Perspectives on a potential North American monetary union," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 29-38.
  40. Pierre Fortin, 1996. "The Great Canadian Slump," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 761-87, November.
  41. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.